Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File


^ Warming Anthropogenic
Models show severe atmospheric effects from human created substances.

ALF KIRKEVÅG et al., (and TROND IVERSEN, JON EGILL KRISTJANSSON, ØYVIND SELAND and JENS BOLDINGH DEBERNARD). Professors at the Department Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 2/11/2008, “On the additivity of climate response to anthropogenic aerosols and CO 2 , and the enhancement of future global warming by carbonaceous aerosols”.


The horizontal distributions of anthropogenic sulphate and black Carbon Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File (BC) column burdens for years 11–50(Fig.1a) are similar to those found in the off-line simulations in Iversen and Seland (2002, 2003), except for a southward shift in the tropics Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File, discussed in detail by Kristjansson et al. (2005). Large sulphate and BC column burdens are calculated over SE Asia, Europe, North America and central Africa. The burdens are much higher in the Northern than in the Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File Southern Hemisphere, see Table 2. The large BC-fraction of emissions from tropical biomass burning relative to NH fossil fuel combustion causes a smaller inter- hemispheric difference for BC than Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File for sulphate. Table 2 also shows that the direct radiative ‘forcing’ (DRF) due to anthropogenic sulphate and BC (the difference TOT1 – NAT1, i.e. a quasi-forcing) is about −0.1 Wm −2 in the present Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File response simulations, very close to the DRF in Kirkevag and Iversen (2002). Due to the considerable computational costs associated with extra calls to the cloud and radiative transfer code, similar (first and second) indirect radiative forcing Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File values have not been explicitly extracted. In Kristjansson (2002) (the basis for the climate response simulations in Kristjansson et al., 2005), the indirect radiative forcing was estimated at −1.3 Wm −2 for the first effect, and Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File −1.8 Wm −2 for the joint first and second indirect effect. Note that the term forcing is here, as in Kirkevag and Iversen (2002) and Kristjansson (2002), used slightly differently than by IPCC-conventions: values Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File are calculated at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface. The DRF at a given vertical level is calculated as the increment in net radiative flux due to changes Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File in aerosol optical properties relative to an atmosphere that only contains a prescribed background aerosol consisting of primary particles of natural origins, dominated by sea-salt and mineral dust. The DRF of Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File natural (from DMS, volcanoes, and wildfires) and anthropogenic (from fossil fuel and biomass burning) sulphate and BC are thus calculated separately. When CO 2 concentrations are doubled while aerosol and pre Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File- cursor emissions are unchanged (TOT2 – TOT1, Fig. 1b), the simulated sulphate column burdens increase by about 2% in the Northern Hemisphere, but remain unchanged in the Southern.




^ Anthropogenic warming- models prove

IPCC, a scientific Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2007, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers

An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf


Anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has likely had a discernible influence at the global scale on observed Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File changes in many physical and biological systems. {2.4} Spatial agreement between regions of significant warming across the globe and locations of significant observed changes in many systems consistent with warming is very unlikely to be Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File due solely to natural variability. Several modelling studies have linked some specific responses in physical and biological systems to anthropogenic warming. {2.4} More complete attribution of observed natural system responses to anthropogenic warming is Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File currently prevented by the short time scales of many impact studies, greater natural climate variability at regional scales, contributions of nonclimate factors and limited spatial coverage of studies. {2.4
^ Warming Anthropogenic
Anthropogenic Warming Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File occuring- global models prove

Sir. John Houghton, 4/5/05, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) , professor in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, former Chief Executive at the Met Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File Office and founder of the Hadley Centre. Institue of Physics , Global warming, http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0034-4885/68/6/R02/rpp5_6_R02.pdf?request-id=1c900945-f246-42ec-a806-e63190d24817, 1373-4


6.6. Climate of Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File the 20th century More than fifteen centres in the world located in ten countries are currently running fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Some of these have been employed to simulate Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File the climate of the last 150 years. An example compared with observed climate is shown in figure 17; similar results have been obtained from many models. Note from figure 17 that the inclusion of Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed temperature changes over the last century (especially for the latter part of the century), but that the Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File best match with observations occurs when both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. Assumed changes in solar output and the comparative absence of volcanic activity assist in providing explanations for the increase in global average Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File temperature during the first part of the century. The shorter term variability shown in the model of about a tenth of a degree Celsius arises from internal exchanges in Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File the model between different parts of the climate system, and is not dissimilar to that which appears in the observed record. It has also been possible from comparisons of results from regional models with observations Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File to attribute some of the patterns of regional change to anthropogenic causes [63]. Allen et al [64] have used the constraints provided by the observed climate on the simulations of models to Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File quantify the uncertainty in forecasts for the first part of the 21st century. Due to the slowing effect of the oceans on climate change, the warming observed or modelled so far is less Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File than would be expected if the climate system were in equilibrium under the amount of radiative forcing due to the current increase in greenhouse gases and aerosols. The increase in ocean heat Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File content over the last 50 years has also been simulated by models showing, when both natural and anthropogenic forcings are included, substantial agreement with observations [65]. Since its formation in 1988 the IPCC has been Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File much involved in the debate as to whether the observed record provides evidence of the influence on the climate of the increase in greenhouse gases. The evidence for both the detection and attribution Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File 6 of climate change has grown significantly stronger during this period. From studies of the global average temperature increase as in figure 17 and also from studies of patterns of climate change Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File over the globe, the carefully worded conclusion reached in the IPCC 2001 Report [66] is the following: ‘In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed Warming Anthropogenic - Warming File warming over the last 50 years is likely 7 to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
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